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Learning curve and ramp-up workbook
A learning curve says that each time cumulative output doubles, the time per unit falls to a fixed share of what it was. On a 90% curve, unit 2 takes 90% of the time of unit 1 and unit 4 takes 90% of unit 2. This workbook turns that into planning numbers. Enter the first-unit hours and a learning rate. It gives the time per unit, the running total and the running average for up to 500 units under both textbook models, unit-time (Crawford) and cumulative-average (Wright). It can fit the rate from your own observed hours, with R squared and a warning when there are fewer than 5 points or the fit is poor. Then it answers the planning questions: the hours for the next batch, the unit at which the time reaches a target and a weekly ramp plan, with a plateau at your standard time and a sheet for new hires on different start dates. The curve models repetitive, stable work, and a rate you assume is a guess, so replace it with your own data. The workbook quotes no typical rates.
Free to use: print it, copy it and edit it for your team. Enter your name and work email once to download.
The definition of a learning curve, the exponent b = ln(rate) / ln(2), the unit-time and cumulative-average formulas, two charts of a 90% curve on linear and log-log axes, and three things to know before using it.Unit-time and cumulative-average modelsTable to 500 unitsPlateau at standard timeFit from your own dataR squared and warningsHours for units a to bUnit that reaches a targetWeekly ramp planHire cohort sheetWorked example
When to use it
When to use a learning curve workbook
- When you launch a new product, line or cell and need the hours for the first batches and the unit at which the time per unit reaches standard.
- When a group of new hires starts on different dates and you want the expected weekly output of the group.
- When you have the hours for a few early units and want the rate your own data implies, not a rate from a book.
- When you schedule or quote a repeat job and need the hours for a batch from unit a to unit b.
- Not for one-off jobs, work set by a machine's cycle, or a design that keeps changing. The limits are listed on page 4 of the PDF and on the Read me sheet.
How to fill it in
- 1
Pick the model that matches what you measured
If you timed individual units, use the unit-time model. If you keep a running average, use the cumulative-average model. A rate fitted to one model is not the rate for the other.
- 2
Enter the first-unit hours and a rate, or fit one
On the Curve sheet type the hours for unit 1 and a rate above 50% and below 100%. Or put your observed points on the Fit sheet and switch the source to the fitted rate.
- 3
Set the number of units and a standard time
N can be up to 500. A standard time makes the curve flatten there, because a unit does not go on getting faster than standard.
- 4
Fit from your own data
Enter up to 40 points, a unit number and the hours you measured. The Fit sheet gives the implied rate, the fitted first-unit hours and R squared, and warns on fewer than 5 points, a poor fit or hours that are not falling.
- 5
Read the planning answers
The Plan sheet gives the hours for units a to b and the unit at which the time reaches a target, from a closed form checked against the table, with the total hours to get there.
- 6
Build the weekly ramp
Enter people and productive hours per person per week. The sheet shows the units built each week and the time per unit at the start of the week. The Cohort sheet does the same for each operator's start date.
- 7
Re-fit as the data comes in
Replace the assumed rate with your own as soon as you have observed hours, and again as the run goes on.
The two models
Unit-time or cumulative-average?
Both models use b = ln(rate) / ln(2). They differ in what T1 x^b describes. The figures are for a first unit of 10 hours and a 90% rate, worked from the formulas.
| Compare | Unit-time model (Crawford) | Cumulative-average model (Wright) |
|---|---|---|
| T1 x^b is | the time of unit x | the average time of units 1 to x |
| Unit 2 | 9.00 hours | 8.00 hours (average of the two is 9.00) |
| Unit 8 | 7.29 hours | 6.24 hours (average of the eight is 7.29) |
| Unit 64 | 5.31 hours | 4.51 hours (average of the 64 is 5.31) |
| GAO says it suits | Production that starts well prepared in tooling, suppliers and lead times | Starts with prototype tooling, a thin supplier base or early design changes, where averaging smooths the swings |
| Use it when | You timed single units | You keep a running average |
T1 x^b is
- Unit-time model (Crawford)
- the time of unit x
- Cumulative-average model (Wright)
- the average time of units 1 to x
Unit 2
- Unit-time model (Crawford)
- 9.00 hours
- Cumulative-average model (Wright)
- 8.00 hours (average of the two is 9.00)
Unit 8
- Unit-time model (Crawford)
- 7.29 hours
- Cumulative-average model (Wright)
- 6.24 hours (average of the eight is 7.29)
Unit 64
- Unit-time model (Crawford)
- 5.31 hours
- Cumulative-average model (Wright)
- 4.51 hours (average of the 64 is 5.31)
GAO says it suits
- Unit-time model (Crawford)
- Production that starts well prepared in tooling, suppliers and lead times
- Cumulative-average model (Wright)
- Starts with prototype tooling, a thin supplier base or early design changes, where averaging smooths the swings
Use it when
- Unit-time model (Crawford)
- You timed single units
- Cumulative-average model (Wright)
- You keep a running average
A filled-in example
Illustrative, not a benchmarkAn example (illustrative, made-up numbers): a new bracket assembly cell. The first unit takes 9 hours, the team plans on an 85% unit-time curve, the standard time is 3.5 hours and the crew is 2 people at 30 productive hours a week each. The Example sheet and PDF page 4 hold the same figures.
- Batch: units 21 to 40 take 81.2 hours, an average of 4.06 hours a unit, against 180 hours if every unit took 9.
- Target: the time per unit reaches 4.5 hours at unit 20. The closed form (target divided by T1, raised to the power 1 over b, rounded up) and the table check both give 20, and building up to it takes 111.6 hours.
- Plateau: the curve reaches the 3.5 hour standard at unit 57, after 254.4 hours in total.
- Ramp: the crew builds 9, 12, 15, 16 and 18 units in weeks 1 to 5, then 17 a week, against a standard output of 17.1 a week. Unused hours carry over, so week 5 is above standard.
- Fit: eight observed points (illustrative) give a fitted rate of 84.1% with R squared 0.994, close to the 85% the team assumed.
With these made-up numbers the cell needs about 111.6 hours to get to a 4.5 hour unit and reaches standard output in week 5 or 6. Your numbers will differ. The point is that the Fit sheet lets your own hours replace the 85%.
Common mistakes
Assuming a rate and never checking it
A few points of rate change the hours a lot: moving from 85% to 90% adds about 33% to the hours for the first 100 units. Fit your own.
Mixing the two models
A rate fitted to unit times is not the rate for the cumulative-average model. Choose the model that matches what you measured and keep to it.
Trusting R squared from two points
A line through two points always fits exactly, so R squared is 1 and means nothing. Five or more points, spread across the run, are better.
Using it for work that is not repetitive
A one-off job, a changing design or a new method partway through breaks the pattern. NASA's guide says a stated slope is an estimate, not a discrete value.
Leaving out the plateau
Without a standard time the curve keeps falling below anything you can achieve. Set the standard time so the curve flattens there.
Planning on part-built units
A week's output is whole units. The plan counts only completed units and carries unused hours into the next week.
Download the template
Free to use: print it, copy it and edit it for your team. Enter your name and work email once to download.
Run this template in LeanSuite
If new hires are your ramp-up, LeanSuite records each on-the-job training sign-off on a tablet, time-stamped, and the person's level updates on the skills matrix.
See it in a 45-minute demoIn the lean glossary
Guides
- Closing Plant-Wide Skill Gaps in 90 Days: A Practical Framework
- TWI Job Instruction: The Training Method Behind Standard Work
- OJT checklist template: one trainee, one job
- New hire onboarding checklist for manufacturing
- Cross-training plan template
- Skills matrix template
- Competency management: skills, levels and sign-offs
FAQ
Learning curve and ramp-up workbook: common questions
The pattern that the more often a task is repeated, the less time each repeat takes. The usual form says each time cumulative output doubles, the time per unit falls to a fixed share, the learning rate. A 90% curve with a 10 hour first unit gives 9 hours for unit 2 and 8.1 for unit 4.
They use the same formula but describe different things. In the unit-time model (Crawford) T1 x^b is the time of unit x. In the cumulative-average model (Wright) it is the average time of units 1 to x. The same rate gives different unit times, so pick the one that matches how you measure.
Fit it from your own hours. Plot the hours for several units against the unit number on log-log axes and fit a straight line; the learning rate is 2 raised to the slope. The Fit sheet does this from two or more points and shows R squared. Five or more points spread across the run are better than two.
We do not give one. A rate depends on the task, the people and the process, and we have no verified source for typical figures. NASA's own guide says a stated slope is an estimate, not a discrete value, and that a slope from a company's own history on work it knows can be accepted for that situation. Fit yours.
For the unit-time model, the unit number is the target time divided by the first-unit hours, raised to the power 1 over b, rounded up. The Plan sheet works it out and checks it against the table. If the target is below your standard time the curve never gets there.
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- Equipment criticality analysisAssets scored 1 to 5 on six criteria with your own weights, ranked and sorted into classes A, B and C with a safety override and a suggested maintenance strategy.
- QA matrix templateDefect modes against stations in flow order: where each is made and first caught, a weight × occurrence × detection score, an AA to C class and the escapes flagged.
- Fault tree analysis templateA drawing area with the FTA symbols, an event table with probabilities and minimal cut sets, and the gates worked out bottom-up in Excel.
- Is / is not analysis templateWhat, where, when and extent with is, is not, distinctions and changes, then each possible cause tested against every pair and ranked.
- 5G investigation sheetConfirm the facts before naming a cause: 5W1H, the five G's with 20 prompts, the gap against the principle and the standard, and the countermeasures.
- Yokoten tracker (horizontal deployment)Copy a proven improvement line by line: the source result, each candidate's own before and after, its share of the source's improvement and the standard updated.
- Lean readiness assessment templateTwenty statements in four factors, scored 1 to 5 by several people on their own, with averages, the spread between them and the actions.
- Breakdown analysis reportOne equipment breakdown from the stop to the 90-day check, plus a breakdown log with repeat flags, MTBF and MTTR by asset and a Pareto of causes.
- Kaizen project plan (Gantt chart)One improvement project as a Gantt chart: tasks by phase with owners, predecessors and working days, a 16-week grid, milestones and a status from planned against actual % done.
- Histogram templateReadings, bins set by the square root rule, a tally and counts, the spec limits drawn and the share out of spec, with the common shapes explained.
- Scatter diagram templateUp to 50 pairs with a group code, r and R², the least squares line, the quadrant count and r for each group.
- Gauge calibration logA gauge register with next due dates and status, a calibration record with as-found and as-left readings, and the steps when a gauge fails.
- Visual management audit checklist29 checks of whether anyone can tell normal from abnormal at a glance, scored by group, with a trend and actions.
- Quality alert formA quality alert to post at the line, a sign-off sheet for every shift, and a log of open, expired and closed alerts.
- TQM self-assessment templateThe eight TQM principles in 24 statements you can check on the floor, scored 0 to 4 by several people, with the spread, the top 3 gaps and an action plan.
- Continuous improvement software evaluation scorecardCompare CI software vendors: a must-have gate, eight weighted criteria scored 1 to 5, points out of 100 and a rank, with a demo script and reference questions.
- Hansei reflection sheet (lessons learned)A written look back at one finished project, event or launch: goals against results in numbers, causes rather than blame, lessons to keep or change, and where else they apply.
- Safety cross calendarA month drawn as the green cross, colored each day by the most serious safety event, with totals and days since the last injury.
- Daily kaizen routine boardA team's 10 to 15 minute daily routine at the board: one problem from each person, small fixes with one owner, counted every week.
- Quality circle meeting recordA circle's charter, a one-page record for each meeting and a problem register that follows every problem from selected to closed or escalated.
- Weekly maintenance schedule templateNext week's maintenance jobs, scheduled only when ready, loaded against each craft's hours by day, with schedule compliance and break-ins at week end.
- Process capacity sheet templateEach machine in a part's routing with manual, auto and tool change time, its capacity per shift, and the step that limits the cell against demand.
- Standard operating procedure (SOP) templateA full SOP in the hierarchical step format, from purpose and scope to the steps, records, revision history and approvals, with review checks and an SOP register.
- Process improvement method selectorEight questions about one problem, an example rule that suggests a method and a matrix of nine methods: when each fits, the usual team and time, and the template to start with.
- X-bar and R control chart template25 subgroups with means and ranges, control limits from A2, D3 and D4, signal flags, both charts and a reaction log.
- Gage R&R study sheet10 parts, 2 or 3 appraisers, 2 or 3 trials: EV, AV, GRR, PV, %GRR and ndc by the average and range method.
- Root cause analysis templateOne report from problem statement to proof: containment, evidence, analysis, verified causes, actions and the effectiveness check.
- Safety pillar 90-day model area planThirteen weeks from the incident pyramid to safety standards on one model area, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves.
- Quality control pillar 90-day model area planThirteen weeks from the QA matrix to the QM matrix on one model area, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves.
- Autonomous maintenance 90-day model area planAM steps 0 to 3 on one model machine in 13 weeks, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves for months 4 to 12.
- Professional maintenance (PM) 90-day model area planThirteen weeks from breakdown analysis to a running PM calendar on one model machine, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves.
- Environment and energy pillar 90-day model area planThirteen weeks from waste and energy maps to area standards on one model area, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves.
- Focused improvement 90-day model area planThirteen weeks from the loss Pareto to standardized fixes on one model line, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves.
- Early equipment management 90-day model area planThirteen weeks from lessons on current machines to a tracked start-up on one model equipment project, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves.
- Cost deployment pillar 90-day model area planThirteen weeks from the loss map to costed, ranked projects in one model area, a KPI board, the day-90 gate and expansion waves.
- Prioritization matrix templateScore up to 20 improvement ideas on weighted criteria, rank them, test the ranking with equal weights and place each one on an effort and benefit grid.
- Cost per unit worksheet (manufacturing cost per good unit)One product's cost per good unit by materials, labor, machine and overhead, the gap to target, and which cost lever is worth most a year.
- RCM worksheet (failure mode and task selection)Failure modes classed as hidden, safety, operational or non-operational, then a task chosen for each: condition-based, discard, failure-finding, redesign or run to failure.
- Error-proofing verification log (daily master-sample check)Each poka-yoke device proved every day or week with a known-bad sample, with missed checks counted and the hours and parts at risk worked out when one fails.
- Defect catalogue template with boundary samplesEvery defect with a definition, a class and the reason for it, measured accept and reject limits by zone, boundary samples, a defect log with DPU and Pareto, and an inspector agreement check.
- I-MR chart template (individuals and moving range)Up to 100 single readings with moving ranges, limits from a baseline, five run-rule flags, both charts, a second phase and a reaction log.
- Kaizen event preparation checklistEverything that has to be ready before a kaizen event and done after it: 44 items with owners and due dates from 6 weeks before day 1 to 30 days after, five go or no-go gates and a day-by-day agenda.
- Attribute control chart template (p, np, c and u charts)p, np, c and u charts in one workbook: a chart selector, a sample size check, limits for each subgroup, signal flags and four worked examples.
- Critical spare parts list and stocking levelsAssets ranked by consequence, each part classed and given a stocking policy, and min and max worked out from usage and lead time, with the downtime each stock-out would cost.
- HACCP plan template: hazard analysis and CCP worksheetThe Codex 12 steps in one workbook: team and product, process steps checked on site, hazard analysis with the CCP decision tree, the CCP table with completeness checks, an allergen matrix and a verification schedule.
- REBA worksheet (Rapid Entire Body Assessment)Score up to six postures with REBA: body-part drop-downs, Tables A, B and C as lookups, final score and action level, and a before and after comparison.
- Mock recall template: traceability exercise worksheetTrace a finished lot back to every input lot and forward to every first customer, reconcile the quantities against a tolerance and time it against your target.
- ISO 9001 internal audit checklist (production area)46 audit questions for the production floor in 11 processes, each with its ISO 9001:2015 clause, what evidence to look for and the sample to take, plus five defined grades, a findings log, a finding report and a summary by clause.
- ISO 45001 internal audit checklist44 audit questions for the plant floor in 16 safety topics, each with its ISO 45001:2018 clause, the evidence to look for and the sample to take, plus 12 worker interview prompts, a findings log and a summary by clause.
- Food plant GMP inspection checklist (21 CFR 117 subpart B)55 checks in the order of 21 CFR 117 subpart B, each citing its paragraph and saying what to look at, with a grade, finding, owner and due date; results by section and grade, a walk route and a bakery example.
- Master sanitation schedule with pre-op verificationA master list of cleaning tasks by area and equipment with frequency, chemical, lockout, who and next due date, a weekly on-time count, and the pre-operational verification log with a release step.
- Overhead crane inspection checklist: frequent and periodic34 crane checks tied to OSHA 1910.179: an operator's pre-shift card, frequent and periodic inspections with signed records, a deficiency and tag-out log, and a register of next due dates.
- Measurement uncertainty budget templateA GUM uncertainty budget: Type A and B rows, divisors by distribution, sensitivity coefficients, uc, νeff, k from the t-table, U, TUR and a guard band check.
- Maintenance job plan templateOne job planned on one sheet: steps and craft hours, parts checked against stock, tools, lockout and permits, documents, a ready check for the schedule, and technician feedback.
- Video time study filming checklistA pre-shoot checklist and shot log for filming a time study on video: camera, light, people, settings, power and review.
- OSHA compliance calendar (general industry)37 recurring federal OSHA duties with the paragraph, interval, owner, next due date and an overdue flag, plus a 12-month view and counts by owner.
- Energy use and EnPI trackerMonthly electricity, gas and fuel in one unit, a 12-month regression baseline, expected against actual energy for each month, an EnPI ratio, the running saving and the tests that say whether the model can be trusted.
- Pugh matrix templateCompare up to 8 concepts with a datum as better, same or worse on up to 12 criteria, flag must-haves, and carry the strongest into a second round.
- Machine guarding inspection sheetA machine register with due dates and a status per machine, 21 checks tied to OSHA 1910.212, .219 and .147, a guard opening check against Table O-10, and an action log.
- Condition monitoring route sheetA route of measuring points with baselines, alert and alarm limits, a check interval from the P-F interval, readings with rising and overdue flags, and an exceptions list worst first.
- Fire extinguisher inspection logOne row for every portable extinguisher: hydro test interval from OSHA Table L-1, annual and 6-year due dates, a 12-month check grid and open issues.
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A shift handover sheet, a red tag log, a changeover checklist for one machine: if your team uses it on the floor, ask.